Right, like my previous blog on the Ultra Zionists, I have a feeling I will have to tread lightly regarding this topic as obviously it can be a bit tetchy, and old wounds run deep in this area. That is why I chose a photo of a protester with a protective helmet made out of bread!  Now I will clearly state that I have no in-depth knowledge of the region, or its history. I think anyone is well within their rights to question what right I have to comment on it, but it is an issue which obviously has a huge impact on the geo-political landscape, and its effects will ripple out everywhere. Also, this is some poxy blog written by me, in my free time, so I will say what I want, my speech was free when my soul descended earthbound![1]

So I have been following the political upheaval for the last month or so, and I wasn’t sure how to react to it. I was trying to identify the reason why these old autocratic regimes had suddenly, and violently been opposed. I did some research, and it seems a common denominator across the board is the increasing size of each countries ‘youth’ population. That and corruption in government, lack of political change, unemployment and economic conditions have come together for the region to form the perfect storm.

Let us start with this youth idea. Due to the increasing prevalence of the internet and social media, these societies, and especially the younger portions of the demographic, have seen how protest in foreign countries can elicit change. As is inherent in largely autocratic models, there is very little opportunity for the disenfranchised youth of a country to vent and make their opinions heard. With little legitimate opportunities to be heard, protest, and mass protest is the only option they have. I feel the success of the Tunisian protest had a massive impact on the youth of Egypt, and was a catalyst in the power, and success of theirs.

Some commentators have said that the increasing levels of education in these youth has created unrealistic expectations, which when broken by Mubarak et al, created an up welling of resentment against the entrenched political system. I am not sure how much I agree with that, as it seems a bit chicken and egg to me, and many of these commentators seem to be saying that education is the problem. I struggle to see how education is ever a problem for anyone except those privileged few who withhold power from the masses. To quote Jefferson;

"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty."

Algeria, having viewed the situation in Egypt, chose to protest, even though it has been banned in the country since 1992. The government, and security forces however did a soft handed approach, and so the reaction of the populace wasn’t as pronounced or violent as Tunisia. Libya on the other hand has strictly outlawed protest of any kind, and Col. Gaddafi isn’t going anywhere. Which is a shame. Once I thought I saw Col. Gaddafi in the 80s, but it turned out it was just my Uncle Redacted . They look identical! Or at least they did in the 80s. Back to Libya, the government was obviously viewing the changes going on around them in neighbouring countries, as they made announcements re: public spending to head off unrest.

Then you have the elephant in the room. Islamism. I think for a lot of Western commentators, and observers, there is a distinct whiff of Islamophobia. This is an idea that, although many of the protests have come about not because of an ideological problem, but social problems, has taken root. Many see this merely as the rise of a more politicized and radical youth.  It is easy to understand how this maybe the case in Yemen, the poorest of the Middle Eastern countries, what with many of the recent terrorist detainees being radicalized in the nation. But to make such sweeping generalisations is not accurate or helpful. The President of Yemen stepped aside, saying he would not hand over his power to his son, ending inheritance of power. This should have made for a peaceful transition, but the opposition leaders refused, insisting their ‘Day of Rage’ took place. Not the best step forward, and unlikely to quell the fears of outside observers. At least think of a less terrifying name!  

So what impact will this have on the West (sic)? It is rarely a good idea to generalise, especially when it comes to politics, but this will have a bearing on immigration amongst other things. Couple this unrest in the Middle East, with the disturbing rise of the Far Right in Europe, add in Europe’s aging population to the Middle East’s young blood, and it is easy to see formalised migration laws coming into effect, and stricter measures across the board. The West also has to be wary of the flimsy political structures that are put in place of the previous autocratic regimes, as their collapse could result in further civil unrest and in fighting.

These fears make things difficult, especially for a country like the United States. A nation which has explicitly stated it wants to foster a legitimate democracy in every country.  However, they had an intimate relationship with the previous political regime in Egypt, one that was mutually beneficial, and this has now been replaced, and possibly by the Muslim Brotherhood, whom endorse full democracy, but who would obviously have things to say regarding the relationship with Israel amongst other things.

Overall I feel we are coming to a pivotal moment in the new century, something that will have a huge bearing on how the next 90 odd years will play out.

- Anand